Yes, I am a weather geek

[rabidsamfan]

And even though hurricanes are a serious threat, I can't help but be amused by the tone of the discussion over at www.nhc.noaa.gov.

000
WTNT44 KNHC 192106
TCDAT4
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

AGREEMENT AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...WHICH HAD BEEN VERY GOOD
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HAS COMPLETELY COLLAPSED TODAY. THE
06Z RUNS OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS MODELS ACCELERATED WILMA
RAPIDLY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALL THREE OF THESE
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF THIS SOLUTION...WITH THE GFDL SHOWING AN
EXTREME CHANGE...WITH ITS 5-DAY POSITION SHIFTING A MERE 1650 NAUTICAL MILES
FROM ITS PREVIOUS POSITION IN MAINE TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
THERE IS ALMOST AS MUCH SPREAD IN THE 5-DAY POSITIONS OF THE 12Z
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE YUCATAN TO WELL EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. WHAT THIS ILLUSTRATES IS THE EXTREME
SENSITIVITY OF WILMA'S FUTURE TRACK TO ITS INTERACTION WITH THE
GREAT LAKES LOW. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WILMA HAS BEEN
MOVING SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OR SOUTH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...AND
THE LEFT-MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ARE NOW SHOWING WILMA
DELAYING OR MISSING THE CONNECTION WITH THE LOW. I HAVE SLOWED THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST JUST A LITTLE BIT AT THIS TIME...BUT IF WILMA
CONTINUES TO MOVE MORE TO THE LEFT THAN EXPECTED...SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAY HAVE TO BE MADE DOWN THE LINE.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY THE
TIMING...HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY.

THE LATEST PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 892
MB...WITH PEAK 700 MB WINDS OF 152 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 140 KT. AIRCRAFT REPORTS...AS WELL AS MICROWAVE AND
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...INDICATE THAT THE INNER
5-MILE-WIDE EYE OF WILMA IS WEAKENING WITHIN TWO OUTER EYEWALLS...
ONE 10 MILES WIDE AND ANOTHER ABOUT 45 MILES ACROSS. IN THE SHORT
TERM...THIS MEANS THAT THE PEAK WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AS THE WIND
FIELD EXPANDS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE TIME FOR WILMA TO
REINTENSITY BEFORE IT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN. WITH AN INCREASING
POSSIBILITY THAT THERE WILL BE A CONSIDERABLE INTERACTION WITH THE
YUCATAN...I HAVE LOWERED THE INTENSITY FORECAST SLIGHTLY IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Comments

[cara-chapel.livejournal.com]

That's funny; this year I've been watching those forecasts too, and I've been quite amused to discern personalities among the hurricane forecasters.

^____^

[rabidsamfan.livejournal.com]

Oh, yes. I've been reading them for years, and can almost guess the name before I get to it at times, but this year it's been such a busy season that the differences are getting more noticeable.

I wonder sometimes if the news people ever get past the forecast to read the discussions -- and I think it would be fun to see what the different models predicted, although the graphics probably aren't as pretty.

If you're interested, at http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/index.html there's a database of hurricanes going back as far as we've been keeping any kind of data.

[claudia603.livejournal.com]

I have totally always wanted to work at the hurricane center. I'm such a geek...;D

[elanorgardner.livejournal.com]

My sister recommended this guy. She has to track this stuff for the government entity she works for in Florida. I assume you know of him. Very interesting stuff to me. I didn't realize so many folks keep up with this as a hobby, of sorts.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/show.html

[dreamflower]

WITH ITS 5-DAY POSITION SHIFTING A MERE 1650 NAUTICAL MILES
FROM ITS PREVIOUS POSITION IN MAINE TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

Ah-huh. A "mere" 1650? *shakes head*

All I have to say is this: It had better *not* head over here. Wilma, we don't want you.

And I think that now we have used the name list up, there shouldn't be any more this season; none of this Greek alphabet business. Once the names are used up the season is *over*, and the rest of them should just give up and go home.

[lindelea1.livejournal.com]

Amen to that. Have been hoping here, illogical as it may be, that Wilma will just sort of turn around and head out into open sea, away from *everything* and *everybody*.

[rubynye.livejournal.com]

*giggles* Yay human personalities shining through. :)

[semyaza.livejournal.com]

It's almost sexy.

[elasg.livejournal.com]

Weather geeks of the world unite! hehehe!

[surgicalsteel.livejournal.com]

*snerk*

Someone needs to tell the forecasters that hurricanes go where they want to go. :)

[lindelea1.livejournal.com]

Why is it that "The Mamas and the Papas" just popped up in my head, singing, "Go where you wanna go..."

[surgicalsteel.livejournal.com]

*chuckles*

I have a feeling I'm going to spend part of Sunday figuring out how to put up the darn hurricane shutters - and then it'll be just weak enough when it hits land and go just far enough away that it will turn out to have been unnecessary. I hope so, anwyay.

[piratesmoon.livejournal.com]

Well weather geek, let's hear your take on it. How would you discribe Wilma using the Rabidsamfan Scale?

I just hope the current predictions are correct. I'm scheduled to spend next week in Mobile doing some Katrina recovery work with a museum. And I'd fly out of NH just in time to miss a possible hit in New England. (fingers crossed)

[rabidsamfan.livejournal.com]

Will you be back for Salem, or do you not know yet?